Heavy Truck Index Signals Potential Recession Within Months, Despite Market Highs

A century-proven economic indicator is flashing warning signs of an impending recession, with historical accuracy spanning five decades. The Heavy Truck Index, which monitors the 10-month moving average of heavy truck sales, has entered a downturn phase after reaching its recent peak. Guilherme Tavares, CEO of i3 Invest, notes this pattern has preceded every modern recession, suggesting the U.S. economy may be fewer than three months away from contraction.

The alert comes amid record highs for major indices—Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500—now facing volatility following renewed trade tariffs. Heavy truck sales serve as a leading indicator, reflecting declining business investment and eroding confidence in supply chain stability. This contrasts with official dismissals of economic slowdown concerns from U.S. leadership.

"ZERO percent chance of recession?" Tavares challenged on social media platform X, highlighting the divergence between stimulus-fueled markets and the index's bearish signal. The metric suggests heightened recession risks before October 2025, potentially reshaping capital flows across asset classes.